quantum computing

VanEck

2026-10-03 09:44:26

VanEck says Bitcoin miners’ power contracts are gaining value as AI demand rises, while quantum computing is not yet a reason to sell BTC

VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, said in an interview on Oct. 3 that the rapid buildout of the artificial intelligence industry is changing how the market values Bitcoin mining companies. In his view, miners are no longer judged only by hash rate and BTC production capacity. Their access to power, especially long-term contracted supply, is becoming more valuable as AI data centers compete for large amounts of stable electricity. Sigel said some miners have signed 10- to 20-year power lease agreements with investment-grade counterparties, and that these contracts give them an element of optionality beyond straightforward Bitcoin exposure. He added that electricity is becoming a scarcer resource as AI expands, which could open new business paths for miners with low-cost, long-duration power arrangements, including a shift toward AI infrastructure. On the market side, Sigel said Bitcoin is showing signs of seller fatigue and that investors should watch for opportunities after pullbacks. He also compared Bitcoin and gold in portfolio construction, arguing that Bitcoin could still gain a larger share over time. As for quantum computing, he described it as a long-term risk worth monitoring, but not one that currently justifies selling BTC. VanEck remains positive on long-term Bitcoin adoption and sees Bitcoin reaching a portion of gold’s market value as one possible valuation reference.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-03 09:38:55

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel Says Bitcoin Is in the Early Stage of a Bull Market

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at investment management firm VanEck, said Bitcoin is already in the early phase of a bull market and continues to show strong performance. He said VanEck sees a medium-term target of about $500,000 for Bitcoin, based on a scenario in which Bitcoin’s market capitalization reaches half that of gold. Looking much further out, Sigel said Bitcoin could rise to $3 million by 2050 if it captures a meaningful role in global energy trade. He also pointed to a multi-year high in Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and said ongoing inflows from institutional investors through spot exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, have supported the market. On the mining side, Sigel said Bitcoin miners hold scarce power resources that have become more valuable in the AI economy, lifting the value of mining machines and energy contracts. Addressing concerns around quantum computing, he said the issue needs to be solved, but the community has already begun to take it seriously and work on responses, which in his view is not a reason to sell Bitcoin now.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-01 14:07:50

Bitcoin Magazine argues quantum computing is not an immediate threat to Bitcoin

Bitcoin Magazine published a long-form analysis arguing that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, or CRQC, is not on the verge of breaking Bitcoin. The piece says there is no evidence such a machine will be built within the next decade, and it remains unclear whether one will ever be built at all. In the author’s view, today’s quantum systems are still far from the scale and stability required to reconstruct private keys from public keys and sign transactions that move other people’s coins. The article walks through the current state of quantum hardware, saying no existing machine has produced a result beyond what a very capable 6-year-old could do, despite the sophistication of the underlying engineering. It also argues that heavy capital inflows do not prove that practical breakthroughs are close, using NASA’s Space Shuttle program and SpaceX’s Falcon 9 as an analogy for the gap between expensive demonstrations and reliable deployment. At the same time, the piece does not call for complacency. It says Bitcoin should keep advancing work on new cryptographic approaches and post-quantum signature schemes, including P2MR, P2TRv2, SHRINCS, SPHINCS, IBC and ML-DSA. The article was written by Brandon Black and appears as a preview from Bitcoin Magazine’s latest print edition, The Quantum Issue.

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Quantum Compu

2026-09-29 05:51:53

Jefferies says quantum computing is shifting from physics breakthroughs to manufacturing execution

Jefferies said the quantum computing industry has reached a turning point after attending the Quantum World Congress. In its view, the sector is moving beyond the stage where the main challenge was simply producing better qubits. The harder problem now is building computers that are actually usable in practice. That shift, Jefferies said, changes where competitive advantage sits. According to the firm, leadership is no longer defined mainly by advances in physics. Instead, the edge is moving toward system engineering, supply-chain coordination, and manufacturing barriers. In other words, the race is becoming less about isolated laboratory progress and more about whether companies can turn technical breakthroughs into complete, deployable machines. The note frames supply chains and manufacturing as the deciding factors in the next phase of competition. Jefferies’ assessment came after the firm attended the Quantum World Congress.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-28 15:10:58

Ledger CTO says hidden public keys do not remove Bitcoin’s quantum risk

Ledger Chief Technology Officer Charles Guillemet said he disagrees with the view that only about 30% of Bitcoin is exposed to quantum-computing risk while the remaining roughly 70% is safe because it is protected by public-key hashes. Citing Glassnode data, he noted that about 30.2% of BTC has already exposed spending public keys on-chain, but argued that this figure captures only what is visible in a static on-chain state. Public keys that have not appeared on-chain may still exist in xpubs, devices, PSBT files, logs, or backups. He also said that once a Bitcoin transaction is initiated, the public key becomes visible before the transaction is confirmed. Guillemet further cited research from Google Quantum AI saying that, under a high-speed quantum computer model that does not currently exist, an attack against secp256k1 could be completed in about nine minutes. On that basis, he said hiding public keys alone cannot solve the quantum threat and that Bitcoin will ultimately need to migrate to post-quantum cryptography.

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Ledger

2026-09-28 14:49:31

Ledger CTO Questions Claim That Only 30% of Bitcoin Faces Quantum Risk

Ledger Chief Technology Officer Charles Guillemet said the idea that only about 30% of Bitcoin is exposed to quantum-computing risk, while the remaining roughly 70% stays safe because public keys are protected by hashes, is flawed. He was responding to earlier Glassnode data showing that around 30.2% of BTC has already exposed spending public keys on-chain. Guillemet argued that this figure captures only the blockchain’s static state and does not account for public keys that may still exist in xpubs, devices, PSBT files, logs, or backups. He also noted that once a Bitcoin transaction is initiated, the public key becomes visible before confirmation. Citing research from Google Quantum AI, Guillemet said that under the assumption of a fast quantum computer that does not yet exist today, an attack against secp256k1 could be completed in about nine minutes. On that basis, he said hiding public keys alone is not enough to solve Bitcoin’s quantum-risk problem and that the network will ultimately need to migrate to post-quantum cryptography.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-27 15:01:03

Bitcoin’s quantum risk is drawing fresh attention as researchers push three lines of defense

Bitcoin’s long-discussed quantum vulnerability returned to the spotlight this week as three separate developments landed at once: a drop in the estimated cost of building quantum-resistant Bitcoin transactions, a renewed focus on protocol-level post-quantum upgrades, and a custody framework from Coinbase aimed at adapting to whatever signature standard Bitcoin may eventually choose. The core concern is unchanged. Bitcoin wallets rely on elliptic-curve cryptography, and a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically recover a private key from an exposed public key, forge signatures, and empty a wallet. No such machine exists today, and the industry’s so-called “Q-Day” remains hypothetical, but timelines are widely debated and many observers see the window for preparation narrowing. StarkWare said an open competition, with AI models leading the leaderboard, cut the estimated cost of a quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction from about $320 to roughly $67 in one week, though the company said the method is only a workaround. Decrypt’s report said the week’s developments did not make Bitcoin quantum-safe on their own. What they did show was a shift from theory toward implementation, with researchers and companies now testing how cheaply defenses can be built and how quickly the threat may be approaching.

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post-quantum

2026-09-21 16:21:39

Flaws Found in China’s Post-Quantum Crypto Candidates, Raising Questions for Bitcoin Security Planning

Bitcoin News said in a post on X that China launched a next-generation commercial cryptography program in 2025 to develop and evaluate standards designed to withstand future quantum computers. During a review of candidate algorithms, independent researcher @mjos_crypto said several proposed schemes showed critical weaknesses. The issues cited included publicly reproducible private keys, hash collisions that could be constructed easily, and signature implementations that accepted invalid signatures. The post tied those findings to the broader debate around Bitcoin’s long-term quantum readiness. Bitcoin currently relies on established elliptic curve cryptography, which has been broadly tested and remains part of its security model today. At the same time, the report noted that moving too early to post-quantum systems that have not been tested enough could introduce vulnerabilities before any practical quantum threat arrives. The episode highlights a core tension in crypto security planning: preparing for a future risk without weakening current systems through immature replacements.

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